This report consists of 14 special topics in 6 chapters, it elaborates Chinas status quo on energy-saving and new energy vehicle development from the aspects of industrial environment, fuel consumption, product development trend, technology application, energy consumption evaluation and overseas development. Amongst the report, the industrial environment part can be divided into 3 branches such as energy situation, policy environment and market environment, they respectively narrate the overall development status for Chinas energy-saving and new-energy vehicle industry. The fuel consumption part separately demonstrates fuel consumption management process for both passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The product development trend part analyzes the development features of vehicle attributes, and explores the relationship between vehicle attributes and energy consumption. The technology application part illustrates features of the energy-saving and new-energy technologies in application, meanwhile it also carries out special study on 48 V hybrid, fuel cell and other technologies which draw great attention to the automotive industry. The energy consumption evaluation part concludes the domestic passenger cars energy-saving competitiveness ranking and the fuel consumption differences analysis between real driving environment and laboratory cycles through the mathematical model analysis. The overseas development part compares the domestic and foreign policy, market, technologies in a horizontal way, it provides constructive information to the development of automotive industry.

1. 本书的撰写以油耗系统、公告系统、合格证系统等官方数据平台为依托，数据可靠性与准确性较高； 2. 是汽车行业官方节能数据发布的唯 一出版物； 3. 从产业环境、政策、市场、技术等多方面对国内节能与新能源汽车进行全面深入的分析。

赵冬昶，中国人民大学产业经济学博士，高 级经济师，高 级工程师。2011年起任职于中国汽车技术研究中心数据资源中心，主要从事汽车节能领域相关研究工作。 张鹏，高 级工程师，2005年毕业于吉林大学机械电子工程专业。在中国汽车技术研究中心数据资源中心负责新能源汽车发展研究、生态汽车评价工作。

Contents



ⅠIndustrial Environment Part



Special Topic 1Energy Situations and Vehicle Energy Consumption Measurement2

1.1Global Vehicle Energy Development Strategies2

1.1.1Chinas Energy Situations and Vehicle Energy Strategy2

1.1.2Energy Situation and Vehicle Energy Development Strategies of the EU, the U.S., and Japan5



1.2Measurement of Vehicle Energy Consumption in China9

1.2.1Measurement Model of Total Vehicle Energy Consumption9

1.2.2Vehicle Population Structure Based on Ages10

1.2.3Driving Range of Vehicles12

1.2.4Average Fuel Consumption Based on Vehicle Types14

1.2.5Vehicle Survival Rate Analysis14

1.2.62016 Vehicle Energy Measurement Analysis15



Special Topic 2Overall Development of Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry18

2.1Overall Development of the Energy-Saving Vehicle Industry18

2.1.1Policy Environment18

2.1.2Chinas Current Energy-Saving Vehicle Development

21



2.2Overall Development of the New Energy Vehicle Industry28

2.2.1Policy Environment28

2.2.2Market Environment of New Energy Vehicles30

2.2.3Supporting Environment for NEV Infrastructure32

2.2.4Commercial Operation Modes and Environment of New Energy Vehicles35



II Fuel Consumption Part



Special Topic 3Development Trend of the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Cars38

3.1The Fleet-Wide Average Fuel Compliance39

3.1.1The Development Trend of the Fleet-Wide Average Fuel Consumption39

3.1.2Fuel Consumption Change per Vehicle40

3.1.3Analysis on the Gap with the Energy-Saving Objective of 202041



3.2Fuel Consumption of Different Categories of Models42

3.2.1Fuel Consumption Change of Different Model Types42

3.2.2Fuel Consumption Change of Different Origins43



3.3CAFC and Compliance Performance of Enterprises45

3.3.1Analysis of Quantity and Production Volume of Compliant Enterprises45

3.3.2Analysis of Enterprises with Excellent Compliance Performance47

3.3.3Analysis on Compliance Performance of Top 10 Enterprises by Production/Import Volume49



3.4The Impact of New-Energy Passenger Cars on the Calculation of Average Fuel Consumption

52

3.4.1Fleet-Wide Average Fuel Consumption before and after the Inclusion of New-Energy Passenger Cars into Calculation52

3.4.2CAFC of Typical Enterprises before and after the Inclusion of New-Energy Passenger Cars into the Calculation53



Special Topic 4Fuel Consumption of Commercial Vehicles57

4.1Classification of Commercial Vehicles57

4.2Fuel Consumption of Light Commercial Vehicles59

4.2.1Fuel Consumption of Different Vehicle Types59

4.2.2Comparison between Fuel Consumption and Limit Value64



4.3Fuel Consumption of Heavy Commercial Vehicles66

4.3.1Fuel Consumption of Different Vehicle Types66

4.3.2Comparison between Fuel Consumption and Limit Value71



III Product Development Trend Part



Special Topic 5Development Trend of Energy-Saving

Properties of Passenger Cars78

5.1Development Trend of Energy-Saving Properties of Vehicles78

5.1.1Curb Weight78

5.1.2Footprint Area83

5.1.3Driving Type87

5.1.4Average Displacement91

5.1.5Average Power97

5.1.6Average Torque101

5.1.7Power/Curb-Weight106

5.1.8Power/Displacement111



5.2Influence of Vehicle Properties on Fuel Consumption116

5.2.1Correlation Analysis on the Contributory Factors of Fuel Consumption116

5.2.2Building Regression Analysis Model118

5.2.3Empirical Research on Domestic Passenger Cars119



Special Topic 6Development Trend and Characteristics of NEV121

6.1Development Characteristics of New-Energy Passenger Cars121

6.1.1Analysis on the Characteristics of Different Technology Types of New-Energy Passenger Cars121

6.1.2Analysis on the Promotion Characteristics of Different Using Purposes of New-Energy Passenger Cars124

6.1.3Analysis on the Distribution Characteristics of Various Promotion Regions of New-Energy Passenger Cars126

6.1.4Analysis on the Product Structure and Performance Trend of New-Energy Passenger Cars128



6.2Development Characteristics of New-Energy Commercial Vehicles133

6.2.1Analysis on the Characteristics of Different Technology Types of New-Energy Commercial Vehicles135

6.2.2Analysis on the Promotion Characteristics of Different Using Purposes of New-Energy Commercial Vehicles136

6.2.3Analysis on the Distribution Characteristics of Various Promotion Regions of New-Energy Commercial Vehicles139

6.2.4Analysis on the Product Structure and Performance Trend of New-Energy Commercial Vehicles139



IV Technology Application Part



Special Topic 7Promotion and Application of Energy-Saving Technologies of Passenger Cars146

7.1Turbocharging Technology146

7.2GDI Technology150

7.3Three-Cylinder Engine153

7.3.1Development of Three-Cylinder Engine Technology153

7.3.2Overview of Enterprises and Models Utilizing the Three-Cylinder Engine Technology155



7.4Miller Cycle Technology159

7.4.1Development of Miller Cycle Technology159

7.4.2Overview of Enterprises and Models Utilizing Miller Cycle Technology162

7.4.3Introduction of Typical Miller Cycle Engine164



7.5Advanced Transmission Technology166

7.5.1Development of Advanced Transmission Technology166

7.5.2Overview of Enterprises and Models Using 9AT, CVT and DCT169



7.6Idling Stop-Start Technology172

7.7Hybrid Technology175

7.7.1Development of Hybrid Technology176

7.7.2Overview of Enterprises and Models Using the Hybrid Technology178



Special Topic 8Technological Supporting Trend of Key Parts and Components of NEV182

8.1Power Battery182

8.2Drive Motor191

8.3Controller for Complete Vehicle193



Special Topic 9Mono-Graphic Study on Hot Industry Technologies196

9.148 V Micro Hybrid System196

9.1.148 V Micro Hybrid Energy-Saving System196

9.1.2Systematic Solution on Reduction of CO2 Emission in the Future198

9.1.3Optimizing Energy Management202

9.1.4Conclusion and Outlook204



9.2Analysis on the Development Trend of Automotive Fuel Cell Technology204

9.2.1Basic Principles and Characteristics of FCV205

9.2.2Status Quo of FCV Technology207

9.2.3Overview of Internationally Typical Fuel Cell Vehicles210

9.2.4Restriction Factors Curbing the Commercialization of Domestic Fuel Cell Vehicles214

9.2.5Development Trend of Domestic Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology215



9.3A Brief Introduction to the Technical Path of Battery Electric Vehicles by BAIC BJEV216

9.3.1Future Technical Planning218

9.3.2Introduction of Advanced Models226



V Energy Consumption Evaluation Part



Special Topic 10Evaluation of Energy-Saving Compe- titiveness of Passenger Cars 230

10.1Purpose and Significance of Energy-Saving Competitiveness Evaluation230

10.2Building the Evaluation System of Energy-Saving Competitiveness of Passenger Cars231

10.2.1Data Index System of Factor Analysis231

10.2.2Introduction on the Evaluation Method of Energy-Saving Competitiveness232



10.3Evaluation and Ranking of Energy-Saving Competitiveness235

10.3.1Evaluation and Ranking of Energy-Saving Competiti-veness of Sedans235

10.3.2Evaluation and Ranking of Energy-Saving Competiti-veness of SUVs237

10.3.3Evaluation and Ranking of Energy-Saving Competiti-veness of MPVs239



Special Topic 11Evaluation of the Gap between the Real-World Fuel Consumption and the Working-Condition-Based Fuel Consumption of Passenger Cars241

11.1Background of Fuel Consumption Gap Evaluation in China242

11.1.1Working-Condition-Based Fuel Consumption242

11.1.2Real-World Fuel Consumption244

11.1.3Purpose and Significance of Fuel Consumption Gap Evaluation245



11.2Introduction on Study Method and Data Basis246

11.2.1Study Method246

11.2.2Data Source and Sample Information246



11.3FC Gap Analysis247

11.3.1Overall Fuel Consumption Gap247

11.3.2Regional Fuel Consumption Gap250

11.3.3Technical Fuel Consumption Gap251

11.3.4Brand Fuel Consumption Gap255



11.4Evaluation Conclusions of the Gap between the Real-World Fuel Consumption and the Working-Condition-Based Fuel Consumption259

11.4.1Evaluation Summary of Fuel Consumption Gap259

11.4.2Analysis of Reasons behind FC Gap260

11.4.3Expectation of Vehicle Energy-Saving Management Policies261



VI Overseas Development Part



Special Topic 12Study on Models with Low Fuel Consump-tion in Germany266

12.1Classification and Registered Volume of German Passenger Cars in Q1 of 2017267

12.2Registered Volume of Compact Models by Fuel Types in March of 2017268

12.3Top 10 Models with Low Gasoline Consumption in Q1 of 2017 (Including HEVs)270

12.4Compact Models with Low Fuel Consumption (Non-HEV, Non-Dual-Fuel) in Q1 of 2017270

12.5Parameters and Configuration List of Typical Compact Models with Low Fuel Consumption in Q1 of 2017276



Special Topic 13Study on the Laws and Regulations of the Zero Emission Vehicle in California, the U.S.278

13.1Development Process278

13.2ZEV Regulation 2009-2017280

13.3Changes in ZEV Regulations Since 2018291

13.4ZEV Management Process297

13.5Influence of ZEV Regulation299

13.6Future Development Trend of ZEV in California302



Special Topic 14Study on Development Trend of NEVs in Foreign Countries304

14.1Analysis of the Sales Volume Trend of New Energy Passenger Cars around the World304

14.1.1Analysis of Market Sales Volume around the World304

14.1.2Countries Ranking by Sales Volume306

14.1.3Automakers Ranking by Sales Volume306

14.1.4Model Ranking by Sales Volume307



14.2Trace of the Policies of New Energy Vehicles in Key Countries309

14.2.1The United States309

14.2.2South Korea309

14.2.3Germany309

14.2.4France310

14.2.5The United Kingdom310

14.2.6Norway311



14.3Analysis on the Development of New Energy Vehicles in Key Automakers311

14.3.1Tesla Inc-Focus on BEVs and Actively Develop Unmanned Technology and Solar-Powered Technology311

14.3.2Nissan Motor-Insist on BEV Route313

14.3.3Toyota Motor-Based on Hybrid Electric Technology Promote the Development of Plug-in, Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology314

14.3.4BMW Group-Focus on the Common Development of BMW ConnectedDrive, BEVs and PHEVs and Fuel Cell Technology315

14.3.5General Motors-Synchronously Develop BEVs, Extended Range Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles316



Appendix



Summary of Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Policies in 2016318