本书介绍了许多减少洪水影响的方法和途径, 特别是针对那些易于遭受洪水灾害的地区和居民。大规模的人类活动, 导致温室气体的浓度不断增加, 改变着地球的气候, 全球变暖, 强降雨事件将发生得更为频繁, 这从物理机制上就意味着将会有更多的洪水事件发生。因此, 洪水对弱势群体的影响将会增大, 要求采取行动的呼声也随之提高。本书的重要性就在于及时的向人们介绍在所需采取的行动中如何减轻洪水的风险。
本书向人们介绍如何针对未来气候变化开展洪水风险评估，并据此及早制定更为有效的应对措施，尤其针对易于遭受洪水灾害的地区和居民。
I have stated many times that I am one of the lucky few who have the opportunity to work all their professional lives in an area that they enjoy. The most enjoyable activity for me is to integrate knowledge from different fields into an approach for solving complex problems that include uncertainty. My work has brought me into contact with many people, responsible professionals, talented engineers, capable managers, and dedicated politicians. In my capacity as an academic I have also had an opportunity to work with young talented peoplethe future of our workforce. I learned a lot from all of them. I learned many things about the profession, I learned a lot about different cultures, and most importantly I learned about life. Thank you.
My interest in risk and flooding as a natural disaster grew from my main area of expertisewater resources systems management. From the early days of my professional career I was involved with floods and flood management, first from an engineering point of view and then later from a management point of view. Flood problems along the Morava, Sava, and Danube rivers in my country of originSerbiawere among the first professional challenges I had to deal with after graduation. In 1997, I was teaching at the University of Manitoba and living in Winnipeg. That was the year of the “Flood of the Century.” The governments of Canada and the USA have agreed that steps must be taken to reduce the impact of future flooding on the Red River. In June 1997, they asked the International Joint Commission (IJC) to analyze the causes and effects of the Red River flood of that year. The IJC appointed the International Red River Basin Task Force to examine a range of alternatives to prevent or reduce future flood damage. I was appointed to the task force and the subsequent experience changed my life.
My work has taken me all over the world. I have had an opportunity to see flood problems in the developed and developing world, in small villages and large urban centers. Projects I have been involved with range in scale from the local to the international. I have discussed flooding issues with farmers of the Sihu area in China as well as the Minister for Irrigation and Water Resources of Egypt. I hope that my professional expertise continues to contribute to the solution of some of these problems. It definitely inspires me to continue to work with greater effort and more dedication.
For more than 35 years of personal research, consulting, teaching, involvement in policy, implementation of projects, and presentation of experiences through the pages of many professional journals, I have worked hard to raise awareness of the importance of uncertaintyobjective and subjectivein the solution of complex problems. The main thrust of my work is the use of a systems approach in dealing with complexity. I have accumulated tremendous experience over the years. In that time I realized that there is an opportunity to contribute to the area of flood risk management by transferring some of the knowledge and experience from the implementation of systems thinking and systems tools to various steps of the flood risk management cycle. Writing this book offered me a moment of reflection, and it elaborates on lessons learned from the past to develop ideas for the future.
我经常说我很幸运，能够有机会把职业作为自己的爱好，并乐在其中。最让我感到享受的事情就是整合不同领域的知识，从中找到求解复杂不确定性问题的方法。由于工作原因，我得以有机会接触很多人——认真负责的教授，才华横溢的工程师，精明能干的管理人员以及富有奉献精神的政治家。作为一名学者，我也有机会与许多青年才俊一起工作，他们是未来的动力。我从我所遇到的人那里学到了很多东西，学到了专业知识，学到了不同的文化，最重要的是我明白了人生的意义。非常感谢你们。
我对洪水灾害与风险的兴趣衍生于我的主要专业领域——水资源系统管理。我在职业生涯的早期就涉及洪水及洪水管理的问题，最初是从工程的角度，而后转向了管理的视点。大学毕业后，我最早不得不应对的专业挑战中，就有我的祖国塞尔维亚的Morava河、Sava河以及多瑙河沿岸的洪水问题。1997年，当那场“世纪洪水”发生时，我正居住在温尼伯市，并在Manitoba大学任教。洪水过后，加拿大和美国政府一致认为必须采取措施以减轻未来Red河水患的影响。1997年6月，两国政府要求国际联合委员会（IJC）分析当年Red河大洪水的成因及其影响。IJC指定国际Red河流域特别小组开展了一系列的研究，提出预防和减轻未来洪灾损失的应对措施。我应招加入特别小组，这段经历彻底改变了我的生活。
由于工作原因，我有机会到访过世界各地，看到发达国家和发展中国家的各种洪水问题，从小村庄到大都市。我参与过的项目涉及广泛，从区域课题到国际项目。我与中国四湖地区的农民以及埃及水利部长都讨论过洪水问题。我希望我的专业知识继续为解决其中的一些问题作出贡献，这定将激励我以更大的努力和更多的奉献不断工作下去。
35年来，我一直从事研究、咨询和教学工作，也参与了政策制定及工程实施，并在许多专业期刊上发表过学术论文。我一直努力工作，致力于在解决复杂问题的过程中提高对不确定性问题的认识（包括主观不确定性和客观不确定性）。我工作的重点是运用系统论方法解决复杂性的问题，多年来已积累了许多经验。于是，我希望能有一个机会为洪水风险管理领域做贡献，将相关的知识和经验——从系统思维和系统工具的实现，到洪水风险管理全过程的各个环节——介绍给世人。本书的写作，也给了我一个反思的契机，从以往教训的剖析中获得未来发展的理念——前事不忘，后事之师。
致谢|Acknowledgements
Publishing this book was made possible through the contributions of many people. I would like to start by acknowledging the publication support provided by the International Hydrologic Programme of UNESCO, and the Water Science Division team including Siegfried Demuth and Biljana Radojevic. Most of the knowledge contained in this book came from my numerous interactions with teachers, students, and colleagues throughout the world. They taught me all I know. I would like particularly to thank the students whose work is used in this text. In order of appearance in the text, they are HyungIll Eum (Chapter 3), Dragan Sredojevic (Chapter 3), Lisa BoweringTaylor (Chapter 3), AngelaPeck (Chapter 3), DejanVucetic (Chapters 4 and 5), Ozren Despic (Chapter 5), Ibrahim ElBaroudi (Chapter 5), Taslima Akter (Chapter 5), and Mike Bender (Chapter 5). A special thank you goes to Veerakcudy Rajasekaram, who is the developer of the computer programs.
The support of my family, Dijana, Damjan, and Tanja, was of the utmost importance in the development of this book. They provide a very large part of my motivation, my goals, my energy, and my spirit. Without the endless encouragement, criticism, advice, and support of my wife Tanja this book would never have been completed.
在多方人士的共同努力下，本书得以出版发行。在此，我首先要感谢联合国教科文组织国际水文计划署和水科学部，特别感谢Siegfried Demuth和Biljana Radojevic对本书出版给予的大力支持。本书中的大部分内容来源于世界各地，由我的老师、学生还有同事们提供的，是他们让我懂得了更多的知识。我要特别感谢参与本书编写的学生们，按照编写章节的顺序，他们是： 参与第3章编写工作的HyungⅢ Eum, Dragan Sredojevic，Lisa BoweringTaylor，Angela Peck； 参与编写第4章和第5章工作的Dejan Vucetic； 参与第5章编写工作的Ozren Despic, Ibrahim ElBaroudi，Taslima Akter 和 Mike Bender。此外，还要特别感谢开发计算程序的Veerakcudy Rajasekaram。
感谢家人给予我的支持，Dijana，Damjan和Tanja对于我能够完成本书是至关重要的。正是他们给予我动力和能力，鼓舞了我的精神，使得我能够实现我的目标。如果没有我的妻子Tanja给我莫大的鼓励和支持、一直以来的批评和建议，我是无法完成本书的编写工作的。
译者的话|Preface
洪水灾害千百年来一直困扰着世界各地的人们。2000—2010年期间所有灾害损失中，有过半的损失是由水文地质灾害——主要是洪水和泥石流——造成的。据统计，2000—2010年全球洪灾年均损失高达200亿美元。Slobodan P. Simonovic先生编著的这本关于洪水风险管理的书，介绍了许多减轻洪水影响的方法和途径，特别是针对那些易于遭受洪水灾害的地区和居民。目前，随着空前规模的人类活动不断加剧，温室气体的浓度显著攀升，并正在影响着地球气候的变化。随着全球变暖，强降雨事件将更为频繁，这从物理机制上意味着将会有更多的洪水事件发生，尤其是针对弱势群体，洪水的不利影响将会明显增大，因此要求采取防范行动的呼声也随之高涨。本书的重要性就在于及时向人们介绍如何针对未来气候变化开展洪水风险评估，并据此及早制定更为有效的应对措施。
作者基于全球观测和众多学者的研究成果，系统阐述了气候变化背景下全球洪水风险的演变机理与趋向，探讨了针对气候变化的洪水风险评估理论与方法，并以众多典型案例分类说明了不同评估方法的适用性与可行性，进而有针对性地介绍了许多减轻洪水风险的途径和适应性措施。全书视野开阔，内容丰富，案例深入浅出，对于了解该领域国际前沿动向和开展洪水风险管理的研究与实践具有很好的参考价值。
全书共分6章。第1章（韩松译）介绍了洪灾给人类带来的巨大危害，而且危害程度越来越高。进入新千年，气候变化对全球的影响重大且广泛。人口增加、城市化等人为因素是造成气候变化的根本原因。而气候变化又改变了洪水的物理特性。作者认为洪灾损失是地球物理系统、人类系统和建造物系统及其多个子系统间相互作用的结果。开展洪水可持续管理的目标是减少洪水发生的概率和可能造成的影响，而制定洪水风险管理计划是最有效率的方法。
第2章（郭重汕译）详细论述气候变化和洪水风险的关系。作者首先分析了洪水的成因与类型，以及流域形态、林地砍伐、农田排水和城市化等对洪水物理特性的影响。随后，从气候变化和气候变异两个方面，基于对全球尺度、地区尺度和流域尺度的监测数据分析，进一步阐释了极端温度、极端降水和季风降雨对洪水发生过程的影响及未来变化趋势。最后，作者介绍了面对气候变化这一全球性挑战的两种途径——减缓与适应。
第3章（王妍炜译）首先详述了适应一词的含义，适应气候变化的内容以及适应性、敏感性、强韧性等名词的概念。作者强调适应气候变化是为降低社会对气候系统变化的脆弱性而对行为或经济结构作出的各种调整。这种调整可以是自发的，也可以是计划的。洪水风险管理是灾害管理的一种，是互动式的决策过程，包括灾害的预防、响应与恢复。而适应性洪水风险管理是将适应性管理与洪水风险管理的方法合二为一，是一种应对洪水复杂性的系统方法。本章详细介绍了洪水管理措施中解决不确定性的概率方法和模糊集方法，及各自的适用范围和优缺点。随后，以加拿大安大略省London市为例，说明如何对气候变化导致的市政基础设施洪水风险进行自上而下的评价。
第4章（张诚，韩松译，冶运涛、秦涛参与校稿工作）作者介绍了在洪水风险分析中使用概率法的详细做法。首先介绍了概率的数学定义、风险类型、风险标准、概率风险模型建立的步骤。详细说明了洪水风险管理概率工具在实践中的应用，包括蒙特卡洛模拟、进化优化算法、概率多目标规划等，每种工具都引用若干案例说明具体建模步骤及难点的处理办法，并编制了计算程序，发布在相关网站上，便于读者学习和使用。
第5章（朱瑶译）探讨了气候变化条件下模糊集理论在处理洪水风险管理各种不确定性中的应用。相对于概率论方法，模糊集方法更能解决气候变化条件下的不确定性问题。作者详细介绍了模糊风险的定义与模糊风险指标，以及风险管理中使用模糊集的三种工具： 模糊模拟、模糊优化和模糊多目标分析。最后通过实际案例对三种工具的建模步骤和难点进行了详细说明，并编制了计算程序，发布在相关网站上。
第6章（朱瑶译）是对全书内容的总结。作者首先总结了气候变化与洪水风险之间的关联关系，气候变化影响范围大而深远，使洪水风险存在更多不确定性。本书提出的交互式洪水风险管理方法为政策制定者对气候变化影响作出判断和制定对策提供了实用指南。使用模糊集方法解决洪水风险管理是本书的创新性观点。
本书的翻译、出版得到了中国水利水电科学研究院程晓陶教授和彭静教授的大力支持。在本书的翻译过程中，程晓陶教授对全书译稿进行了悉心的指导，并对全文进行了审校。张建立教授和万洪涛教授为本书提出了宝贵意见。朱瑶博士对全书进行了统稿。本书出版得到 “十二五”科技支撑项目（2012BAC21B02）“太湖流域洪水风险演变及适应技术集成与应用”和国家自然科学基金青年基金（41401045）“水文过程对弯曲型河道横向植被格局累积影响及调控方法”的资助。在此一并表示衷心感谢。
由于译者水平有限，在翻译过程中难免出现纰漏之处，对译文有疑义的地方，读者可对照英文原文理解作者的本意，并欢迎批评指正。
译者
中国水利水电科学研究院
2016年5月
Foreword3
Preface5
Foreword7
Preface11
Acknowledgements13
Definitions15
Acronyms and abbreviations21
Chapter 1Flood risk management1
1.1The global flood problem4
1.2Problem context8
1.3Flood risk15
1.4How do we manage flood risk?17
1.5Systems view of flood risk
management19
1.6Conclusions23
1.7Exercises24
Chapter 2Climate change and risk of
flooding25
2.1Floods and their physical
characteristics27
2.2Climate change and variation
impacts35
2.3Approaches for dealing with
climate change49
2.4Conclusions55
2.5Exercises57
Chapter 3Risk management as adaptation to
climate change59
3.1Flood risk management decision
process63
3.2Approaches to flood risk management
as adaptation to climate change74
3.3An example: Climate changecaused flood
risk to municipal infrastructure,City
of London (Ontario,Canada)82
3.4Conclusions124
3.5Exercises125
Chapter 4Risk management: probabilistic
approach127
4.1Mathematical definition of risk129
4.2Classification of risk135
4.3Risk criteria138
4.4Probabilistic risk modeling141
4.5Probabilistic tools for flood risk
management147
4.6Conclusions213
4.7Exercises214
Chapter 5Risk management: fuzzy set
approach217
5.1Paradigm change219
5.2Introduction to fuzzy sets222
5.3Fuzzy risk definition241
5.4Fuzzy tools for flood risk management
under climate change249
5.5Conclusions307
5.6Exercises308
Chapter 6Future perspectives311
6.1Understanding climate change and
flood risk management313
6.2Adaptive flood risk management
under climate change316
6.3Risk communication319
6.4Conclusions323
References325
译著序言3
译者的话5
序言7
前言11
致谢13
术语15
缩略词21
第1章洪水风险管理1
1.1全球洪水问题4
1.2洪水问题的内涵8
1.3洪水风险15
1.4如何管理洪水风险17
1.5洪水风险管理的系统观点19
1.6结论23
1.7练习题24
第2章气候变化与洪水风险25
2.1洪水及其物理特性27
2.2气候变化和变异的影响35
2.3气候变化的应对措施49
2.4结论55
2.5练习题57
第3章适应气候变化的风险管理59
3.1洪水风险管理决策过程63
3.2适应气候变化的洪水风险管理
措施74
3.3案例： 气候变化导致加拿大安大略省
London市市政基础设施
洪水风险82
3.4结论124
3.5练习题125
第4章风险管理： 概率法127
4.1风险的数学定义129
4.2风险类型135
4.3风险标准138
4.4概率风险模型的建立141
4.5洪水风险管理的概率工具147
4.6结论213
4.7练习题214
第5章风险管理： 模糊集方法217
5.1模式转变219
5.2模糊集介绍222
5.3模糊风险的定义241
5.4气候变化条件下洪水风险管理中的
模糊工具249
5.5结论307
5.6练习题308
第6章未来前景311
6.1了解气候变化与洪水风险管理313
6.2气候变化背景下适应性洪水风险
管理316
6.3风险沟通319
6.4结束语323
参考文献325
第1章洪水风险管理|Flood risk management
Chapter 1Flood risk management
A flood is a very simple natural phenomenon that occurs when a body of water rises to overflow land that is not normally submerged (Ward,1978) At the same time,a flood is a very complex phenomenon that connects the natural environment,people,and the social systems of their organization Flooding causes loss of human life It damages infrastructure such as roads,bridges,and buildings,and hurts agricultural productivity because of lost crops and soil erosion Flood disaster relief often requires enormous funding Connectivity increases risks As more links are present among the elements of natural,social,and technological systems,these systems develop unexpected patterns of connections that make breakdown more likely
We are witnessing many catastrophic flood disasters European floods in 2002 caused more than 7 billion damage Hurricane Katrina caused flooding in 2005 that was the costliest natural disaster,as well as one of the five deadliest,in the history of the USA At least 1,836 people lost their lives in the actual hurricane and in the subsequent floods; total property damage was estimated at US$81 billion In June of 2006,northeastern Bangladesh disappeared under monsoon floods as rains drenched the region The floods stretched across hundreds of kilometers of what had been dry land a month earlier and inundated two thirds of the territory of the country Typhoon Morakot of 2009 was the deadliest typhoon to impact Taiwan in recorded history It created catastrophic damage in Taiwan,leaving 461 people dead and 192 others missing,and roughly US$3 3 billion in damage The storm produced huge amounts of rainfall,peaking at 2,777 mm (109 3 in) The extreme amount of rain triggered enormous mudslides and severe flooding throughout southern Taiwan One mudslide buried the entire town of Xiaolin,killing an estimated 500 people In the wake of the flood,Taiwans President Ma Yingjeou faced extreme criticism for the slow response to the disaster,having initially deployed only roughly 2,100 soldiers to the affected regions Later additions of troops increased the number of soldiers to 46,000 The 2010 China floods began in early May The total death toll as of August 5 was 2,507 More than 305 million people in 28 provinces,municipalities,and regions were affected,while at least 12 million people had been evacuated because of the risk of flooding and landslides by early August As I am writing these words,Pakistans deadliest floods in decades have killed more than 1,500 people and overwhelmed government efforts to provide aid The floods death toll may rise to 3,000 Approximately 20 million people had been affected by floods by early August Regions downstream in the Indus River valley,where most of Pakistans 162 million people live,are bracing for floods that may damage crops
第1章洪水风险管理
洪水是一种非常简单的自然现象。当洪水发生时，水体水位升高淹没平常不受淹的陆地(Ward,1978)。同时，洪水也是一种非常复杂的现象，与自然环境、人类及其社会组织体系有密不可分的关系。洪水泛滥会导致人员伤亡，也会毁坏基础设施，例如道路、桥梁和建筑物等，并因土壤侵蚀、农作物受损而破坏农业生产力。减轻洪灾往往需要巨大的投入。现代社会多个系统之间的连通性使得洪水风险大大增加。随着自然、社会和科技系统中各单元之间的联系越来越多，这些系统间连接的故障就更可能呈现突发的模式。
我们见证过很多大洪灾： 2002年欧洲大洪水造成70亿欧元的损失。2005年卡特里娜飓风引发的洪灾造成了最为严重的经济损失，这场灾难也是美国历史上伤亡最重的五大灾难之一。在飓风灾害和随后的洪灾中，至少有1836人死亡，总资产损失估计达到810亿美元。2006年6月，因为持续的降雨，孟加拉国东北部变成了一片泽国。洪水淹没的区域纵深达几百公里，将一个月前还安然无恙的陆地全部淹没。此次洪灾使得孟加拉国2/3的领土被淹。2009年的莫拉克台风是中国台湾有记录以来最致命的一场台风，带来了灾难性的破坏，共有461人死亡，192人失踪，经济损失达33亿美元。风暴使得降雨量激增，最大降雨量达2777 mm（109 3 in）。极端降雨引发了台湾南部严重的泥石流和洪水灾害，其中，小林村整个村子都被泥石流掩埋，估计死亡500人。洪水暴发后，台湾当局领导也因对灾害救援反应迟缓而饱受批评。灾害发生后，政府仅仅出动2100名士兵前往灾区救援，难以满足救灾需求，所以又增援士兵46000人。2010年中国大陆的洪水始于5月，至8月5日死亡人数已达2507人，28个省、自治区和直辖市受灾，受影响人口达3 05亿人。截至8月初，中国至少有1200万人因洪水和滑坡风险而被迫撤离。就在我写这本书的时候（2010年，译者注），巴基斯坦发生了近几十年来最严重的洪灾，死亡人口超过1500人，政府的救灾努力收效甚微。洪灾导致的死亡人口总数可能将达到3000人，截至2010年8月初，受洪灾影响的人口约为2000万人。Indus河下游地区有1 62亿巴基斯坦人及大片的农田随时可能被洪水淹没。
1 1The global flood problem
Assessing the global flood problem is not an easy task due to gaps and numerous deficiencies in statistics,the highly variable quality of the available data,and the problems of comparing flood impacts across the wide socioeconomic development spectrum Most of the information to be presented here is from the Dartmouth Flood Data Observatory (2010) inGermany,the Emergency Events Database EMDAT of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED,2009) in Belgium and the Munich Re NatCatSERVICE online database (Munich Re,2011)
The longer time period records (traced back to 1900,although more reliable after 1950) show a relentless upward movement in the number of natural disasters (Figure 1 1) and their human and economic impact (Figure 1 2) Black indicates the number and impacts of flood disasters It is troubling that disaster risk and impacts have been increasing during a period of global economic growth On the good side,a greater proportion of economic surplus could be better distributed to alleviate thegrowing risk of disaster On the bad side,it is possible that development paths are themselves creating the problem: increasing hazards (for example through global climate change and environmental degradation),human vulnerability (through income poverty and political marginalization),or both
The information on flood disasters presented in Figures 1 3 to 1 6 is taken from EMDAT: The CRED International Disaster Database for the period 1950—2010 In order for a disaster to be entered into the database at least one of the following criteria has to be fulfilled: 10 or more people reported killed; 100 people reported affected; a call for international assistance; and declaration of a state of emergency
……
新书资讯